This season really felt like two seasons in one. After the loss in London to the struggling Denver Broncos, this season felt lost, and the Jaguars were nothing more than an improving team struggling to find ways to win. Instead, the team turned it around when it mattered most, winning the final 5 games to win the division by two games.
The result of the season feels unequivocally like an A+. Hype going into next season will be at an all-time high. However, for many players, simply giving them an A+ is unfair to the fact this team struggled early.
Today, we’re reviewing and grading the holistic season for our 5 best offensive skill position players. Stay tuned for O-Line grades and Defensive grades in the near future as well. Let’s get into it:
Trevor Lawrence: A-
Season Stats: 66.3% Completion, 4113 Yards, 7.0 Yards/Attempt, 25 TD, 8 Int, 95.2 Passer Rating, 291 Rush Yards, 5 Rush TD (Note: as of Jan. 31, Trevor Lawrence has been named to the AFC Pro Bowl Games Roster)
The Jaguars seemed to go as Trevor Lawrence went for much of the season. All he had to do was play well for the team to follow. In games where Trevor Lawrence had a passer rating over 85.0, the Jaguars were 8-2. When he really got going, this team felt unstoppable down the stretch. In games that Lawrence posted 3+ passing touchdowns, the Jaguars were 5-0.
What keeps Lawrence from an A+ for his sophomore season is inconsistency and turnovers that lead to a horrendous 5-game stretch after a promising 2-1 start. Between weeks 4 and 8, he completed under 58% of his passes, and had only 7 total touchdowns against 9 turnovers.
Some of his turnovers were especially costly, particularly 2 redzone interceptions in the games against the Texans and Broncos. Without that frustrating stretch it’s easy to imagine the Jaguars winning multiple additional games. It’s easy to look back and play what-ifs, and ultimately this season ended as a smashing success regardless.
The Jaguars should expect more late-season Trevor Lawrence next year, especially with the addition of a new top-tier playmaker in Calvin Ridley. The bar is set higher for next season: a perfect year next season will likely require at least challenging Jacksonville’s franchise records for passing yards and TDs while leading us to a second consecutive playoff berth.
RB Travis Etienne: B+
Season Stats: 220 Rush Attempts, 1125 Rush Yards, 5.1 Yards/Attempt, 5 TD, 35 Receptions, 316 Yards
Etienne was not the full-time starter for this team until week 6, but he was fantastic in his time as a starter. He finished the season as a 1000-yard rusher, and looks to factor in as a major weapon for the Jaguars next year as he continues to build chemistry with former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence.
Etienne misses out on higher grades for a variety of reasons, each of which should be focal points in the evolution of the offense next season. First, Etienne was rarely a threat in the passing game. Part of this comes down to the offense’s preference to run screens for the WRs and Jamal Agnew, but Etienne should be seeking to grow into a more reliable weapon for Trevor. Etienne never exceeded 3 catches in a game, and broke 40 receiving yards only once.
Another glaring issue is ball security. Etienne committed 5 fumbles this seasons, and there were many more instances where he would momentarily lose and regain control of the ball that don’t appear as fumbles in the stat sheet. For him to take the leap into becoming one of the NFL’s premier backs, he’ll need to protect the ball more, particularly in big games.
WR Christian Kirk: A+
Season Stats: 133 Targets, 84 Receptions, 1108 Yards, 13.2 Yards/Catch, 8 TD
Christian Kirk led a receiving room that featured multiple breakout stars this season. Kirk set career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He also posted yard per reception numbers higher than his career average, all while stepping up as a number one option for the first time in his career.
Kirk was also incredibly reliable as a big-time playmaker. 55 of his 84 catches (65.5%) went for first downs, and he felt like he was constantly an open option for Trevor on clutch downs.
His production last year is a major win for a front office staff that was widely criticized this past offseason when Kirk was given elite WR money in free agency. Kirk lived up to the hype and was worth every penny of the contract, which holds a major 2023 cap hit before becoming incredibly manageable over the final 2 seasons.
For a comparison to other elite receives, Kirk had: more yards than DK Metcalf, more TDs than Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans, more 20+ yard receptions than Stefon Diggs, and was in the top 15 players for first down receptions. He was paid to be elite, and now his named belongs with other elite receivers.
WR Zay Jones: A+
Season Stats: 121 Targets, 82 Receptions, 823 Yards, 10.0 Yards/Catch, 5 TD
While the deal given to Kirk was panned by the national media, the Jaguars also went out and made another impactful signing of then-Raiders WR Zay Jones. The deal went under the radar, but the value for production provided by Zay might even outweigh that of Christian Kirk (who I have already given an A+ to).
Zay deserves the A+ in his own right. His story this year is similar to Kirk’s: in his first year alongside Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence, Zay had career highs in receptions and yards, while posting his second-best mark in TD catches.
Especially down the stretch, Zay Jones was a threat to go off in any given matchup. He had 11 catches for 145 yards against the Ravens in week 12, 8 catches for 77 yards and a score in the week 14 matchup against the Titans, 6 catches for 109 yards and 3 (yes, three!) touchdowns in week 15 against the Cowboys, and then was a major part of the comeback effort in the Wild Card game, burning the Chargers with 8 catches for 74 yards and a score.
From a second-option in his first year as part of the system, Zay Jones exceeded expectations more than anyone could have imagined. He’ll likely see a dip in production next season with the introduction of Calvin Ridley into the offense, but don’t be surprised to see the veteran step in with big plays over the course of the next season as well.
TE Evan Engram: A+
Season Stats: 98 Targets, 73 Receptions, 766 Yards, 10.5 Yards/Catch, 4 TD
Keeping Evan Engram in a Jacksonville Jaguars jersey for next season needs to be priority number one for this front office. Like Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Evan Engram posted career high numbers in his first season as a Jag. This includes his personal career highs in receptions and yards, along with the most touchdowns he has had in a season since his rookie year.
Where Evan Engram was at his best this season though, was in yards after the catch (YAC). Evan Engram totaled 465 yards after the catch this season, and did often with violent finishes that led to key momentum boosts and first downs. That 465 yard number ranked second among all tight ends this season, trailing only Travis Kelce (Who had nearly 40 more catches).
As an illustration of just how impactful Evan Engram was, if he had received the same number of targets as Kelce has this season, his pace would be: 113 Receptions, 1,189 Yards, and 6 Touchdowns. If you narrow the sample to Engram’s final 6 games, his projected statline with 152 targets would be a monstrous 119 Receptions, 1,356 Yards, and 10 Touchdowns. Nobody in the NFL took better advantage of a 1-year prove-it deal than Engram did this season.
This skill group took a major step forward in 2022. For all but Trevor Lawrence, this was effectively each player’s first year playing with the Jaguars. They all took promising steps forward in production, and helped the Jaguars shock the NFL through the latter half of the season.
The expectations for this group are certainly going to shift going into next season. Hopefully the reinstatement and addition of WR Calvin Ridley to the group takes some pressure off these playmakers and frees them up even more to make an impact. While dips in production are nearly certain for most of the receiving core in particular, their ability to contribute as parts of the whole should only grow with more talent and experience around them.
(Thanks to Pro Football Reference and NFL.com for providing all the stats referenced in this article).
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